Analysis & Selections By: Dean Keppler @Keppskorner
BEST BET: 6-Rugelach (Race 9)
Race #1: 7-Cathal (Ire) showed promise in his first stateside start for Sadler on May 5 and now stretches out to a mile this afternoon. The No Nay Never colt finished second in a field of 14 going this trip two-back when over at Dundalk. 2-Goodfella (Ire) steps up in class off a solid U.S. unveiling on April 26, where he earned the field’s best last-out turf Beyer (76). That last race has produced three next-out winners. 1-Tribal makes his second start off the six-month layoff today while stretching back out to a mile for conditioner Richard Mandella. He moves all the way inside to the rail today and fired off a five-furlong bullet drill on May 25.
Selections: 7-2-1
Race #2: 5-Mastermind is coming off a career-best main track Beyer, earned in a solid 3 ¼-length gate-to-wire win on May 10. He’s looking to repeat this impressive performance today using similar tactics. The 6-year-old gelding, though yet to string together back-to-back victories, showed his sharpness by returning to fire off a four-furlong :47.1 gate drill on May 17. 4-Zimba Warrior is dropping in class today after a wide fourth-place effort on April 26, where he finished ahead of the top choice. 1-Tembo is making his second start after a mini-freshening, following an extremely wide trip in the aftermentioned May 10 event, showing his resilience and potential for improvement.
Selections: 5-4-1
Race #3: 5-Big Hopes showed little when returning off a year layoff for Sadler on May 10 but is eligible to move forward today. The 4-year-old filly switches to jockey Antonio Fresu this afternoon who was atop the leader standings for the meet as of this writing with 21 victories. Class dropping 2-Topolina goes second off the claim for trainer Ryan Hanson and projects to be on or close to the lead today with Maldonado back aboard. 1-Champagne Camie hasn’t been out since August 2022 but returns at a reduced level for an excellent layoff barn.
Selections: 5-2-1
Race #4: 1-American Cat is shortening up off back-to-back route races for conditioner Lorenzo Campuzano and may fall into a favorable stalking trip with Smith climbing aboard for today’s riding assignment. 4-Soul of Midnight has other speed to contend with this afternoon but is a logical contender at this level off three consecutive third-place finishes that have produced identical (74) Beyer figures. Blinkers off 5-Crowning Gold earned a solid (76) Beyer two-back going this 6 ½-furlong trip, which is above par for this class level, indicating his readiness for the race.
Selections: 1-4-5
Race #5: The 5-year-old gelding 1-One Time Mark continues to run well for trainer Mark Glatt despite being unable to find the winner’s circle while running above par for this level on multiple occasions. He shortens back up to a mile this afternoon while making his second start off the mini-freshening, exiting a solid second-place effort on May 4. First-time gelding 9-Bartholdy has good speed from the outside and is reunited with red-hot Fresu. The late-closing 8-Siennois (Ire)makes the third start of the form cycle this afternoon for D’Amato off an improving Beyer pattern.
Selections: 1-9-8
Race #6: The lightly raced gelded son of Ghostzapper 1-Dr. Venkman hasn’t been out in seven months for trainer Mark Glatt but has shown sharp form in all three career efforts, with his Beyers improving with each subsequent start. This lucrative jockey-trainer combo has excelled with horses returning off >180 days’ rest, and this gelding’s morning drills have been exceptionally sharp. The super-talented 4-Big City Lights brings an impressive (5-4-0) stellar record from nine career starts into this grade 2 event after scratching last week to avoid another potential loss to the streaking super gelding The Chosen Vron. He figures to get another favorable upfront pressing trip. 2-Happy Jack returned with a field’s best (101) Beyer speed figure on April 27 off a nine-month layoff for Team O’Neill and is a top contender in this short field if able to replicate that figure.
Selections: 1-4-2
Race #7: 7-Shiloh’s Mistress just missed by a nose in a super strong turf debut in the grade 3 Providencia on April 20 and projects to get another favorable up-close pressing journey today with Rispoli back aboard for the return mount. 3-Faith Understood ships west for her Southern California unveiling off a sharp 18-1 runner-up finish at Aqueduct on April 28, where she earned a field’s best last-out (82) turf Beyer. 5-Circle of Trust was third behind Shiloh’s Mistress in the aftermentioned Providencia but is on the improve for D’Amato and is proven at today’s 1 1/8-mile distance.
Selections: 7-3-5
Race #8: This $50k Maiden Claiming dirt sprint for colts and geldings is a good spot to try a first-time starter. 2-Tequila Talkin (by multiple grade 1 winner Stay Thirsty) debuts with Lasix off an average worktab for Knapp, but this jockey-trainer combo is an impressive 5 for 16 (31%) with a $3.58 ROI with debut runners the past four years. 3-Big Baby returns off a 10-month hiatus for conditioner Mark Glatt and drops in for a first-time tag. Long layoffs and this substantial class plunge have been a winning formula for this lucrative barn, going 4 for 11 (36%) with a $3.91 ROI over the past four years. Blinkers off 9-Cody Boy has speed from the outside and exits a field’s best last-out (68) Beyer when finishing second on May 4. He followed up that improved effort with a bullet drill on May 25.
Selections: 2-3-9
Race #9: A beaten favorite in the last, the consistent hard-trying mare 6-Rugelach stretches back out to her preferred one-mile trip this afternoon for conditioner Ron Ellis. The 4-year-old filly removes the blinkers this afternoon and projects to get a favorable trip on or close to the front. The late-closing 3-Sixteen Arches (Ire) hasn’t been out since November 2022 but returns to action for a great layoff barn. 2-Big Summer stretches out of a disappointing return effort as the beaten chalk on May 5. The 6-year-old mare continues to train well for conditioner Carla Gaines and is eligible to bounce back this afternoon.
Selections: 6-3-2
